Demography and socio-economic situation

Population projections are what-if scenarios that aim to provide information about the likely future size and structure of the population based on assumptions for fertility, mortality and migration. Population projections expressed in absolute numbers.

Calculation

The EUROPOP2010 “convergence scenario” is used. This is based on the population on 1st January 2010, and the assumptions have been developed in a conceptual framework where the socio-economic and cultural differences between EU Member States would fade away in the long run. This assumption implies a convergence of the most important demographic values. For example, in the (hypothetical) convergence year 2150, fertility is assumed to converge to levels achieved by MSs that are considered to be forerunners in the demographic transition. Life expectancy increases are assumed to be greater for countries at lower levels of life expectancy and smaller for those at higher levels. Migration is assumed to converge to zero net migration in 2150. These assumptions can be summarised by means of indicators such as total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth and net international migration for the target year 2060.

Relevant dimensions and subgroups

Calendar year (from 2010 up to and including 2060)
Country
Region (according to ISARE recommendations)
Sex
Age group (0-24, 25-64, 65+)

Preferred data type and data source

Preferred data type

basic demographic data (as input for the projection models)

Preferred data source

Eurostat (EUROPOP2010)

Data availability

Eurostat calculates projections for all EU Member States and EFTA countries. Population projection data from Eurostat are available by single age and sex from 2010 (start population) up to and including 2060. For 2008 until 2031 Eurostat also calculates regional population projections at NUTS level 2 (i.e. not fully in accordance with ISARE recommendations).

Data periodicity

Population projections are produced by Eurostat every 3-4 years. There is no official release calendar.

Rationale

Basic demographic data by itself: population projections are predictive measures which implicate that if the hypothetical projection calculation premises are correct, what projected population size and age structure would result in any future year. The current scenario is primarily used in the context of the European Commission’s analysis of the impact of ageing populations on public spending.

Remarks

Eurostat projections may differ from national estimates due to different assumptions of fertility, mortality and migration. Eurostat projections are recommended because Eurostat uses the same harmonized calculation methods for all countries.